Topic Analysis - PF Catalonian Independence
By: Krithika Shamanna and Tvisha Malik
Overview:
The PF resolution for January is... Resolved: Spain should grant Catalonia its independence.
In terms of framework, it’s important to consider the word “should.” While most teams have been framing in the round in terms of Catalonia’s best interest, it may be strategic to consider Spain’s best interest as well. It is important to keep in mind that there are different implications of “being granted” independence and “declaring” independence. Some teams use them synonymously which can be problematic when it comes to adjudicating the probability level of the debate.
Background Info:
Why do Catalans want independence?
Catalonia has a regional identity distinct from Spain. It is one of the wealthiest regions of Spain and contributes a significant portion of the government's tax revenue. Catalans often cite that the money they contribute in taxes doesn't benefit Catalonia because money is redistributed to other provinces. Additionally, a majority of Spain’s exports come from Catalonia.
The Independence Movement
On October 1, the Catalonian government held a referendum for independence, which is considered illegal under Spain’s constitution. Spain sent its police force and army into the region to prevent voting, creating civil unrest.
Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution allows Spain to intervene in one of its regions if there is a failure to fulfill the laws set forth by the Constitution. This article gives the Spanish national government the ability to suspend local institutions and impose direct rule, undermining all regional autonomy.
Prime Minister Rajoy was given approval by the Senate to use Article 155. He called for new elections on December 21st, resulting in a independence parliamentary majority.
Pro:
The most common argument on this topic is civil unrest. Teams argue that the current circumstances have progressed to a point where both Spain and Catalonia will have no choice but to resort to violence with the October referendum being an example of the inevitable violence. By granting Catalonia its independence, Spain could prevent a war from breaking out and allowing for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Another pro argument is that granting Catalonia independence reduces Spanish oppression. Article 155 is a recent example of this. Most teams impact to human rights.
Another important argument is that affirming boosts Catalonia's economy. Spain has denied Catalonia fiscal autonomy, similar to what the Basque region currently has. All the while, Spain disproportionately benefits from Catalonia’s strong economy through the collection and redistribution of tax revenue. Essentially, an independent Catalonia wouldn’t have to face the same financial burdens that are endured right now. A few things to keep in mind is that economic prosperity is contingent on an independent Catalonia being a part of the EU (which is up for debate). It also does not take into consideration that Catalonia’s debt to Spain represents 35.4% of its GDP (76.7 billion euros).
This argument has two important impacts:
If Catalonia’s government can invest all their tax revenue into their own economy, they can improve social services, such as healthcare, and infrastructure.
Catalonia’s size and location are to its benefit (similar to Ireland and Switzerland). Businesses and tourists would likely be attracted to Catalonia, helping its economy prosper.
Con:
A common argument on the con is that if Catalonia is granted independence it would set a precedent for other regions who are seeking independence. This problem transcends Spain's borders as many regions in addition to the Basque region in Spain are seeking independence. Germany, Italy, the U.K. and Belgium all have regions with linguistic and cultural differences that have separatist movements, which could be emboldened by Catalonian independence. Many teams try to impact this argument out to having a large scope because it affects both political and economic consequences of the entire world.
Additionally, many teams argue that if Catalonia is independent, it will no longer be a part of the EU. Even if Catalonia was granted approval eventually, the approval process would take so long that the impacts could still be triggered. There are two impacts to this:
Foreign Direct Investment: Many teams argue that investors will be hesitant to invest in the region due to fears of political uncertainty. Businesses have already started moving out of Catalonia.
Trade: If Catalonia isn’t a part of the EU, it would face many trade barriers, making it harder to export goods. This decrease in trade could create job loss, among other negative economic consequences.
Tourism: Given the regional instability, tourists would be less likely to travel to Spain/Catalonia in the event of succession, especially given its exclusion from the EU.
Special thanks to Krithika Shamanna from Westwood School in TX and Tvisha Malik from Cypress Woods High School in TX for their expertise!